Software-based method of determining the necessary population evacuation zone in case of a chemical accident

Abstract

The article analyses the number of chemically hazardous objects in each region of Ukraine and gives the approximate number of hazardous chemicals on them. An example of the most massive accident with the release of chemicals in Ukrainian history (1991-2021) has been given; its causes and consequences have been revealed. It has been proved that the study of effective ways of the population evacuation planning and conducting in case of emergencies is an urgent task today. The analysis of scientific works in this direction has been carried out and the absence of a standard technique for population evacuation planning based on computer simulation of hazardous chemical substances release has been revealed. The purpose of the study is to create a methodology for determining the required evacuation zone on the basis of information technology, which will allow faster and more efficient decision-making and evacuation of the population from the accident zone. The authors have proposed a method for determining the required evacuation zone parameters based on the use of two existing software products: ALOHA and ArcGIS. ALOHA software allows calculating parameters of required evacuation zone around a chemically hazardous object depending on meteorological conditions, such as wind direction, humidity and ambient temperature. ArcGIS software superimposes obtained parameters with the administrative map of the territory on which, with the help of additional tools, residential and industrial buildings and structures falling into pollution bubble are selected. The end product of such modelling is a list of buildings (with addresses) that need evacuation which can be used by rescue services and the police during the rescue operations. The article gives an example of such modelling for one of the objects in Lviv.