Mathematical Modeling of the Development and Extinguishing of Forest Fires in Radionuclear Contaminated Areas

Abstract

Fires in radioactively contaminated forests, particularly in the Chernobyl exclusion zone, pose a particular danger. During such fires, radionuclides migrate, depending on the level of radioactivity and wind speed. To assess the effectiveness of decisions made regarding forest firefighting, it is necessary to conduct mathematical modeling of forest fire spread processes and their extinguishing, which can be used to estimate the time required to complete the task as a criterion of effectiveness, taking into account the available firefighting forces and means and their tactical and technical capabilities. This will prevent the spread of forest fires and the volume of radionuclide emissions. Modeling was carried out by mathematical methods, developing formulas that describe the spread of the edge of a forest fire in the form of an ellipse. During the modeling of fire development and extinguishing processes, the area of the fire and its change over time were used as criteria, taking into account the spread and extinguishing. The modeling assumed the homogeneity of the properties of the layer of forest combustible material and the presence of a constant wind speed and direction. In this case, the fire area will be limited by an ellipse. The suggested mathematical model of forest fire development and extinguishing is simple and allows obtaining the contour equation and forest fire area before and after extinguishing, assuming constant wind direction and speed and taking into account management decisions regarding the number of forces and means and their placement around the fire perimeter.