Forecasting post-fire dynamics of vegetation recovery in natural ecosystems

Abstract

The study investigates the patterns and ecological consequences of vegetation succession in areas affected by ground fires within the Roztochya region of Ukraine. The objective was to identify key stages and drivers of post-pyrogenic vegetation recovery and assess the role of dominant species in ecosystem stabilization. Field surveys were conducted in burned and control sites using geobotanical methods, Braun-Blanquet cover-abundance scales, and Ellenberg indicator values. Species richness, vegetation structure, and environmental indicators were analyzed to determine successional dynamics. The results revealed that post-fire communities demonstrate clear differentiation in floristic composition and soil-vegetation relationships compared to unburned areas. Pioneer species with high ecological plasticity dominated the early successional stages, while later phases showed a gradual restoration of native species. The findings contribute to understanding post-fire regeneration processes and provide a foundation for managing pyrogenic landscapes and implementing nature-based solutions in fire-prone ecosystems. The study emphasizes the need for long-term monitoring and ecosystem-based management strategies in regions exposed to increasing fire risks under climate change.