Development of a simulation model of safety management in the projects for creating sites with mass gathering of people

Abstract

The model-scheme of threats during management of projects of creating sites with mass gathering of people (SMGP) was proposed. Its feature is consideration of the main events of operating activities of the site and possible safety threats. The usage of principles of identification of the threats to the SMGP at the planning stages was proposed. An abridged structure of decomposition of operation of a site with mass gathering of people at the planning stage was developed. The classifications of complex systems in management of projects and programs in the system of civil defense were proposed. They are tree-like models of the classification objects according to various classification features. A comparative analysis of methods and algorithms as for usage of imitation modeling in projects of this type and their division into three groups were performed. As a result, in order to conduct further simulation research, we selected the method of simulation modeling. The simulation model of a life cycle of the project of creating the SMGP in the software complex AnyLogic was proposed, and based on it, a dynamic model of simulation environment of the life cycle in projects of this type was proposed. It provides an opportunity to assess the major parameters of safe operation of a site with mass gathering of people: throughput of a site, peak hours of critically permissible loading, maximum number of visitors.