Using of the trend extrapolation method for qualitative prognosis the global cybersecurity index in Ukraine

Abstract

In the paper, the research problem of cybersecurity in Ukraine and constituent elements of the cybersecurity global index were considered. The study object is the methods of predicting the indicator of the cybersecurity global index in Ukraine based on the trend extrapolation methods using one dynamic sequence. The purpose of the work is to apply predicting methods to build a prediction of the global cybersecurity index in Ukraine. The tasks of the job are to build a global cybersecurity index prediction based on average absolute gain, building a prediction of global cybersecurity index based on the average growth rate, building a prediction of global cybersecurity index based on flowing average, assessing the quality of prediction of each method and comparing them with each other to choose the best one. There was selected an indicator to characterize the state of cybersecurity development in Ukraine - the Global Cybersecurity Index, and a feature of using the global cybersecurity indicator and all the components on which it is built and which form it was described. Also, different values for Ukraine's five-year global cybersecurity index were formed by using official reports generated by the International Telecommunications Union located in Switzerland. Based on data of 2014-2018 years global cybersecurity index projections in Ukraine for 2019 and 2020 years have been developed. The qualitative Global cybersecurity index predicting was considered using the database of simple trend extrapolation methods. This database includes the following methods: a trend extrapolation method based on the average absolute gain, a trend extrapolation method based on the average growth factor, a trend extrapolation method based on flowing average. Also, the method of ex-post predicating to qualitatively and quantitatively compare the results of each method and determine the best of them was implemented and obtained values and made a diagram of possible future events were compared. The obtained results give reason to hope for improvement of the global cybersecurity index in Ukraine, which maintains the provided existing trends in the development of the cybersecurity sector in the country.